Keir Starmer has been cautioned that despite a significant drop in net migration to pre-Brexit levels, the prevailing “crisis messaging” around migration has led most voters to believe that it is on the rise. New data set to be released today is anticipated to show a decrease in net migration figures. However, public perception remains skewed, with a majority mistakenly thinking that migration has increased, potentially fueling concerns that immigration is spiraling “out of control.”
The Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker survey revealed that 56% of the public wrongly believes that net migration increased in the past year. Contrary to this belief, the actual figures for 2024 show a significant decrease from 848,000 to 345,000, after reaching a peak of 944,000 in 2023.
Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, highlighted that despite the declining trend in net migration, the ongoing political discourse fails to reflect this reality. As migration figures approach pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000, the focus should shift from continual reductions to a more nuanced debate on the necessity and benefits of immigration.
The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which aims to manage migration numbers effectively, lies in the persistent crisis narrative reinforcing the public’s perception that asylum and immigration are running unchecked, leading to increasingly polarized attitudes.
Furthermore, the study found that public perception overestimates the proportion of asylum seekers within the overall immigration landscape. While most individuals believe asylum makes up a third of all immigration, the actual figure stands at approximately 14% for the year up to June.
Despite a majority holding balanced views on immigration, the research indicated a rise in those rejecting any benefits of immigration, with 16% expressing this sentiment, up from 7% in 2021. A significant portion of the population desires either maintaining current immigration levels or reducing them significantly, while a minority supports an increase.
Amidst these perceptions, there is a lack of consensus on which sectors of migration for work should be reduced, with only a minority advocating for cuts in professions such as doctors, care workers, lorry drivers, or seasonal farm workers.
In response to these findings, Sunder Katwala emphasized the need for a transparent discussion on the required levels of immigration, the management of associated pressures, and the maximization of benefits for the UK. Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, highlighted the increasing salience of immigration in public discourse, driven by dissatisfaction with government handling, particularly regarding small boat crossings and asylum numbers.
The report suggests scaling up the UK-France asylum deal to address Channel crossings, phasing out asylum hotels by the next year, expediting decision-making processes, and establishing viable pathways to settlement. It underscores the importance of acknowledging legitimate concerns around immigration while combating prejudice in the broader debate on the topic.