Keir Starmer has returned to the UK from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully secured important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, No10 is relieved that the Beijing visit went smoothly. However, the focus in Downing Street now shifts to upcoming events at home, particularly the looming by-election in Greater Manchester.
Scheduled for February 26, the by-election in the traditionally safe Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will determine the successor to the resigned MP Andrew Gwynne. The recent decision by Labour’s governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster has sparked concerns among some MPs about the potential backlash.
There is a mix of optimism and apprehension within the party regarding the outcome of the by-election. While some fear a loss could be interpreted as a sacrifice made by Starmer to sideline Burnham, others like Labour MP Karl Turner express confidence in their chances. Turner emphasized the importance of winning the by-election to alleviate pressure on the party leader.
Experts like polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice highlight the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming by-election, with multiple significant players in contention. The race is seen as competitive, with Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party vying for support. The outcome remains unpredictable, with strategic voting likely to play a crucial role.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, characterizes the by-election as a three-way battle between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, all influenced by the presence of Nigel Farage. Tactical voting will play a key role in determining the winner, with voters facing dilemmas on how best to prevent Reform from clinching victory.
As the by-election approaches, the strategic choices made by voters will ultimately shape the outcome of the closely watched contest, where each party is eager to secure victory and make their mark in this traditionally safe Labour constituency.