After announcing his intention to compete in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Andy Burnham’s decision left Keir Starmer facing difficult options. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge, as only MPs are eligible to stand for the leadership position.
Additionally, the possibility of engaging in an unforeseen mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amidst Labour’s upcoming challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May added to the dilemma. Poor results in these elections could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with competitors like Burnham eyeing the top leadership role.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister pursued, involved blocking Burnham’s candidacy, citing the financial burden on taxpayers and the diversion of party resources from the May elections. While this move eliminated the immediate threat, it could lead to severe long-term consequences.
Following the announcement, MPs expressed discontent, accusing Labour’s governing body of manipulation. Burnham could potentially become a symbolic figure for disgruntled backbenchers viewing the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already shown a propensity for rebellion, influencing the Government to reverse several decisions. Provoking them further might complicate Starmer’s position.
Privately, a minister suggested that allowing Burnham to run would have been a stronger strategic move, potentially making Starmer appear weaker by blocking him.
With aggressive briefings against potential leadership contenders like Wes Streeting and Burnham’s exclusion from returning to Westminster, differing opinions exist on whether these actions exhibit strength or vulnerability.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal conflicts that the public finds tiresome. However, until Labour can boost its dwindling poll numbers, speculations about Starmer’s future will persist.
While Burnham has his detractors, some believe his actions prioritize personal ambitions over the constituents of Greater Manchester who elected him recently. Despite previous unsuccessful bids for Labour leadership, Burnham remains a popular figure, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour comfortably secured Gorton in 2024, the upcoming by-election presents a challenge as Reform intensifies its efforts for an upset, and the Greens target left-leaning voters. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of his exclusion on the election outcome.
Should Labour lose the upcoming by-election, repercussions are anticipated.