Almost three years following their initial international scrutiny for targeting commercial ships near Yemen, the Houthis have significantly expanded their violent influence in the Middle East.
This group, which has been a persistent challenge for Israel, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and global shipping routes, originated as part of the Yemeni civil war that claimed over 100,000 lives before a fragile ceasefire in 2022. On one side were the Houthis, while the internationally recognized government, supported by a Saudi-led coalition, stood on the other.
Emerging in the 1990s, the Houthi movement stemmed from the Houthi family in far-north Yemen, creating a revival movement for the Zaydi sect of Shia Islam. The civil war erupted in 2014 when the Houthis rebelled against the government, seizing control of Sanaa, Yemen’s capital.
By early 2015, Saudi Arabia, with the backing of other Gulf states and U.S. support, initiated airstrikes against the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran. This proxy conflict inflicted severe devastation on Yemen, leading to a death toll of approximately 150,000 individuals, alongside widespread malnutrition and other humanitarian crises, as recognized by the United Nations.
Following a UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022 that somewhat mitigated hostilities, the Houthis redirected their aggression towards Israel and Red Sea shipping routes post an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, sparking a conflict in Gaza. Subsequently, the Red Sea shipping encounters resulted in the sinking of two vessels and claimed four sailors’ lives by the end of 2024. Nonetheless, the Houthi assaults tended to de-escalate during Gaza ceasefires and paused during U.S. airstrikes for nearly two months, halting attacks on American ships.
The recent developments indicate a collapse of the 2022 truce, raising concerns of renewed civil war in Yemen and potential implications on global commodity prices. The ceasefire’s stability was disrupted in July when the Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi Arabia in retaliation to a Saudi airstrike on Sanaa’s international airport, hindering a flight carrying Houthi leaders from attending Iranian leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
The Houthi offensive extended to the strategic Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as reported by Yemeni government sources, illustrating the rebels’ persistent efforts to dominate the crucial passage between Yemen and Africa. The strait acts as a vital global shipping route, mirroring the tensions between Iran and the U.S. in the nearby Strait of Hormuz.
The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., emphasized that Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandab could enable Iran to leverage disruptions in energy and shipping flows, impacting Gulf countries economically. With Saudi Arabia heavily reliant on the Red Sea route due to tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic implications are profound.
The Houthis’ ambitions align with establishing a strict Shia theocracy encompassing all of Yemen, positioning themselves as partners rather than proxies of Iran, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The economic consequences of the escalating conflicts are evident, with record-high shipping costs for large tankers and surging global oil prices reaching above $100 US per barrel.
The disruption in key maritime routes like the Suez Canal underscores the significant impact on global commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel, affecting trade routes between the Gulf, Mediterranean, and Asia.
As the situation escalates, Saudi Arabia seeks U.S. support in combating the Houthis, although Washington has indicated a reluctance for direct military intervention, opting for intelligence sharing and targeting assistance. The future remains uncertain, with Iran’s potential strategic maneuvering in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and varying expectations regarding Houthi actions to avoid severe repercussions, as highlighted by the ISW reports.