Health authorities combating the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing mobile-phone data that has been anonymized to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas where the virus may spread next, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative strategy, a novel approach in Ebola response efforts, is being employed due to the challenges faced in containing what the WHO has labeled as the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak has spanned six provinces, resulting in over 6,250 infections and 3,039 fatalities since its declaration on May 15, according to the most recent government data.
This particular Ebola outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments available.
Given the escalating spread of the virus, health officials are keen on preempting potential outbreak locations and allocating limited surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements in the current epidemic, highlighting the importance of understanding and tracking such movements for outbreak control.
Unlike traditional risk assessments that focus on known outbreak hotspots and adjoining areas, the analysis of mobility data enables responders to identify risks in areas that may be physically distant but interconnected through travel patterns.
The data analysis, conducted by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, utilizes anonymized mobile phone records generated when users connect to telecommunication networks. These records reveal the locations where these connections occur, offering insights into people’s travel patterns across the country.
Flowminder receives this data at no cost from Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo. The company, however, did not provide a comment on this initiative. Flowminder assures that the data received is anonymized and aggregated, ensuring the privacy of individual subscribers.
By analyzing these movement patterns, researchers can predict how infectious individuals move within the population, aiding in outbreak containment strategies.
The initial analysis by Flowminder, conducted in early June, focused on three key areas believed to be the outbreak’s origin points: Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara. The study tracked travel patterns of individuals who had been in these areas between April 3 and April 23, revealing significant flows of travelers to nearby regions where confirmed Ebola cases later emerged.
As the outbreak extended beyond its initial epicenter, Flowminder expanded its analysis to other affected regions, monitoring the travel patterns of individuals leaving these hotspots. Locations like Kisangani, a crucial transport hub connecting eastern and western Congo, garnered attention due to the risk of rapid virus spread.
Recent studies have highlighted connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River and border areas with neighboring countries. The WHO continues to caution about the potential spread of the outbreak to Kinshasa and nearby nations, with a modeling exercise indicating a high probability of detecting cases in Kinshasa by the end of September.
One limitation of this analysis is its reliance on data from Congolese mobile networks, offering only a partial view of cross-border movements. Efforts are underway to engage with other telecom operators to enhance coverage and obtain more comprehensive data for improved outbreak response strategies.