In the previous federal election, Donald Trump’s trade threats and talk of integrating Canada as the 51st state led to an unexpected turn in Quebec politics. The focus shifted from defending the province’s interests to safeguarding Canada against its neighbor. On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party capitalized on this sentiment, achieving their best result in decades in Quebec and sidelining the Bloc Québécois. Discussions on Quebec identity, secularism, and language were overshadowed by the noise from Washington.
As the provincial election commences today, the question arises whether the U.S. president will once again play a significant role. The recently imposed tariffs dominated pre-election campaign talks, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield the province from economic repercussions. Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst, highlighted that managing the economy during uncertain times could be the pivotal election issue.
Prior to the trade war escalation, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were the primary concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faced challenges due to discontent among voters after two terms in power. The CAQ stands to benefit the most if economic stability becomes a priority for voters, as stated by André Lecours, a political science professor.
Quebec is projected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs, particularly due to its reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois (PQ), currently leading in opinion polls, announced a referendum delay until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing that the election should focus on Quebec’s future.
The CAQ Leader, Christine Fréchette, holds an advantage for being in power during this challenging period. She unveiled financial aid programs for businesses affected by the tariffs, aiming to replicate Mark Carney’s successful leadership transition. However, Fournier noted differences in the comparison and highlighted the absence of a Pierre Poilievre-like opponent in this scenario.
Opponents of Fréchette are already questioning her ability to navigate the current situation effectively. St-Pierre Plamondon and Charles Milliard criticized her approach, positioning their parties as better suited to handle the challenges and strengthen federal relationships. Other parties have proposed various economic measures to address the impact of the tariffs.
The upcoming election’s outcome remains uncertain, with Fournier suggesting that the leader who can reassure the electorate amidst the Trump-induced uncertainties will likely have an advantage, although the definitive frontrunner is yet to emerge.